The Deadlock After the Polls

The election cycle for the 26th Knesset, held on October 27, 2026, has left Israel in weeks of political uncertainty (cnn.com, 2026; prif.org, n.d.). The official results, released in early November, showed that the right-wing bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu weakened to 53 seats, while the centrist bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot secured 48 seats (FDD's Long War Journal, 2026; the Guardian, 2026). Neither side managed to reach the required majority of 61 Knesset members, leading President Isaac Herzog to begin a round of consultations with party leaders to decide whom to task with forming a government (PBS News, 2026a; arabnews.jp, 2026).

The current situation differs significantly from the dynamics of a year ago, when the political system was focused on questions of war management and accountability for the October 7 failures (Legal 500, 2026). In the months leading up to the election, issues of ultra-Orthodox conscription and the impact of the war on the economy were at the center of public debate, eventually leading to the government's collapse and the calling of elections in July 2026 (crisisgroup.org, n.d.; wikipedia.org, n.d.). While Netanyahu held a coalition of 68 seats a year ago, he now faces a real difficulty in securing sufficiently broad support in the legislature (the Guardian, 2026; arabnews.jp, 2026).

The roots of the current deadlock lie in a long period of political turbulence since 2019, which included five election cycles in under four years (crisisgroup.org, n.d.). After a period of relative stability starting in late 2022, the system suffered deep shocks due to the dispute over judicial reform and the outbreak of the war in 2023 (everycrsreport.com, n.d.; Al Jazeera, n.d.). This sequence of events led to a situation where the political system is more fragmented than ever, with every attempt to form a government encountering mutual vetoes between blocs and a lack of agreement on basic policy lines (the Guardian, 2026; crisisgroup.org, n.d.).

An angle that daily news tends to miss is the dramatic increase in the power of the Arab parties, which won 19 seats combined and became a complex kingmaker (FDD's Long War Journal, 2026; the Guardian, 2026). Although Eisenkot’s bloc received recommendations from 67 Knesset members, a figure that on its face gives him an advantage, the potential partnership between centrist parties and Arab parties remains a point of sharp political friction (the Guardian, 2026). The fact that the Joint List and Ra’am recommended Eisenkot only to oppose Netanyahu, without committing to join a government, poses a structural obstacle to any attempt to form a stable administration (the Guardian, 2026).

What remains open now is the President's decision, expected to be announced on November 8, 2026 (the Guardian, 2026). Even after the first mandate is granted, there is doubt whether the chosen candidate will succeed in bridging the deep ideological gaps between potential coalition partners (the Guardian, 2026). President Herzog recently warned that political hostility in Israel impacts Diaspora Jews and called for unity, but on the ground, it appears the coalition negotiations are expected to be protracted and tense, with the possibility of reaching another deadlock not ruled out (Jerusalem Post — front page, 2026b; cnn.com, 2026; the Guardian, 2026).